“FOLLOW THE money,” said Deep Throat.

Actually not really. Deep Throat never said that. William Goldman said that—he made it up as dialogue for the movie. But it stuck. Among other things, it’s often accurate. Follow the money, you find the truth.

Why didn’t we see a settlement Friday? I think in this rare instance … we should take Alec at his word: he could not make a version of Axanar that pleases the donors with the terms CBS was offering.

What are those terms? CBS doesn’t want money. They don’t care about the studio (obtained with donor funds). They are protecting their copyright. They would allow a version of Axanar to be made with the fan film guidelines. They might (conjecture on my part, no sources) even extend a few courtesies like allowing professional talent or a longer run time to get this nightmare out of their lives.

But they are not going to allow any more public fundraising. Would you? He’s raised $1.3 million—that’s more than enough.

And the real problem is that Alec is out of money.

Because he was stupid, and ignored advice, and sunk his money into an albatross of a studio on the megalomaniac idea that he would be allowed to produce bootleg Star Trek, indefinitely, with professional talent under the studios’ noses in Los Angeles.

I mean, people don’t jump off of buildings for a reason—you won’t fly, you’ll kill yourself!

The first, $100K Kickstarter was spent making Prelude to Axanar. The second, $638K Kickstarter went into overhead (see the Axanar Annual Report in the “files” section of this page).

That leaves the $575K Indiegogo campaign. Take away 10% to Indiegogo. Take away 2016’s rent of $15K/month to date. It’s down to $300-400K…and probably far less.

They’ve continued to sink money into the studio but, for inexplicable reasons, have yet to rent it out (probably because it still needs more work before it’s up to code and/or pro standards).

Just look at the categories in the 2015 Annual Report: insurance, phones, perks, shipping—and the ones that are basically Alec’s lifestyle slush fund (convention expenses, auto, travel).

Even though their lawyers are pro bono, the lawsuit has hard costs that have to be paid (depositions, transcriptions, subpoena services, travel).

We know that a ton of the Tobias Richter VFX work were already completed. Was he paid? How much? The short of it is: I would not be surprised if they are quite literally out of money. Or have $100K at most left to make anything.

So CBS would basically be calling Alec’s bluff to let him proceed with making a limited version of Axanar…because he can’t even afford to do that.

And if he did, even though he would get to play Garth (which he is desperate to do, despite the fact he sucks and his own people consider him a horrible actor) it would be so embarrassingly bad he would be a laughingstock and a pariah.

Plus CBS would not allow him to make a documentary about himself. A good documentary actually could be profitable, a la Trekkies or The Death of Superman Lives.

I do not believe Axanar was ever a moneymaking venture. I do believe it was a massive creative ego trip, and the money was incidental. So I do not doubt Alec’s sincerity is to make the movie.

But we also have enough of a track record on him and his shenanigans (like the Propworx bankruptcy) that HE will follow the money.

And for me his play financially is to:

1. Try the Hail Mary pass of winning the lawsuit, to make Axanar as a fair use “mockumentary” and fulfill his dream of making bootleg Star Trek indefinitely (won’t work, but worth a shot).
   
   When this fails (maybe after appeal, dragging it out another year):
2. Liquidate the studio — just walk away.
3. Make a documentary about himself.

So that’s my new prediction.

Really pathetic, and I feel so sorry for the donors who were swindled, and the people at CBS and Paramount who have to spend time on this instead of making actual Star Trek that we would all enjoy.